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The economist DĂ NUCLEARA: Leul românesc e subevaluat cu 58%

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Indicele Big Mac a fost inventat de The Economist în 1986 ca un „ghid vesel: pentru a determina dacă monedele se află la nivelul lor „corect”. Conform datelor publicate la începutul acestei luni, leul românesc este subevaluat cu 58,6%. Indicele Big Mac se bazează pe teoria parităţii puterii de cumpărare (PPP), noţiunea conform căreia, pe termen lung, ratele de schimb ar trebui să se apropie de rata care ar egaliza preţurile unui coş identic de bunuri şi servicii (în acest caz, un burger) în oricare două ţări.

Burgernomics nu a fost niciodată gândită ca un instrument de măsurare precisă a nealinierii valutare, ci doar ca un instrument pentru a face mai uşor de digerat teoria cursului de schimb. Cu toate acestea, indicele Big Mac a devenit un standard global, fiind inclus în mai multe manuale de economie şi făcând obiectul a zeci de studii academice. Indicele ajustat în funcţie de PIB răspunde criticii conform căreia ne-am aştepta ca preţurile medii ale burgerilor să fie mai mici în ţările sărace decât în cele bogate, deoarece costurile forţei de muncă sunt mai mici. PPP indică direcţia în care ar trebui să se îndrepte cursurile de schimb pe termen lung, pe măsură ce o ţară precum China devine mai bogată, dar nu spune prea multe despre cursul de echilibru actual. Relaţia dintre preţuri şi PIB-ul pe cap de locuitor poate fi un ghid mai bun pentru a indica valoarea actuală corectă a unei monede, potrivit The Economist.

În ianuarie 2019, The Economist a concluzionat că lira sterlină britanică a fost subevaluată cu 27% faţă de dolarul american, pe baza indicelui Big Mac. Adică, un Big Mac costa atunci 5,58 dolari în SUA şi 3,19 lire sterline în Regatul Unit. Această diferenţă sugerează un curs de schimb implicit de 0,57%, dar cursul de schimb real la acel moment era de 0,78%.

Un Big Mac costă 10,60 lei în România şi 5,81 dolari în Statele Unite. Rata de schimb implicită este de 1,82. Diferenţa dintre această valoare şi cursul de schimb real, 4,41, sugerează că leul românesc este subevaluat cu 58,6%. În raport cu euro pe baza indicelui leu este subevaluat cu 51,5%, potrivit The Economist. Cea mai mare diferenţă este în Rusia. Un Big Mac costă 135 de ruble în Rusia şi 5,81 USD în Statele Unite. Rata de schimb implicită este de 23,24. Diferenţa dintre această valoare şi rata de schimb reală, 77,42, sugerează că rubla rusă este subevaluată cu 70%. La polul opus este Elveţia. Un Big Mac costă 6,50 franci elveţieni în Elveţia şi 5,81 dolari în Statele Unite. Rata de schimb implicită este de 1,12. Diferenţa dintre această valoare şi rata de schimb reală, 0,93, sugerează că francul elveţian este supraevaluat cu 20,2%.

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PM Ciuca says late academician Tarateanu embodied ideals of Bucovina Romanians

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Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca sent a message on Monday on the death of academician Vasile Tarateanu, in which he highlighted the activity through which the academician „embodied the ideals of Romanians from Bucovina.”

„I have ruefully learned about the passing of academician Vasile Tarateanu, a prominent representative of the Romanian community in northern Bucovina. A writer, journalist, honorary member of the Romanian Academy, chairman of the Eudoxiu Hurmuzachi Romanian Cultural Centre in Chernivtsi, Vasile Tarateanu embodied the ideals of Romanians in Bucovina, keeping the Romanian language, literature and culture alive since the Soviet period and in all these years after the independence of Ukraine. I am standing with the Romanian NGOs and all the Romanians who have read, loved and appreciated him. Sincere condolences to the family. May God rest him in peace!” Ciuca said in a Romanian government’s Facebook post. AGERPRES

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Competition on Romania’s motor third-party liability market rises as quotes drop (ASF)

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After H1 2022, Romania’s market for the RCA motor third-party liability insurance confirms having managed to overcome the effects of the City Insurance SA, a former leading RCA insurer, having left the market, according to data with the Financial Oversight Authority (ASF).

„The efficiency of the unprecedented measures taken by the Financial Oversight Authority (ASF), both in terms of legislation and in terms of control and oversight, is confirmed by the preliminary data reported by insurance companies for the first six months of 2022,” according to ASF.

Market concentration, they say, although still high, reached the lowest level in the last eight years.

„After having grown substantially after the exit of City Insurance SA, in the second quarter of this year Euroins, the current leader of the RCA market, returned to the level of the similar period of 2021 in terms of market share, dropping to 31.8%, in June 2022, from 36% in late March 2022.”

Correlated with the developments in other companies authorised to sell RCA, the dynamics of the market share of the largest players suggests that the insurance deficit created by the exit of City Insurance SA was covered in a balanced way by the entire market, without the appearance of distortions that would up to alarming levels the market share of a single player.

Moreover, that can also be seen from the report on payments made by the eight active players in H1 2022.

„Euroins has a share of over 50% in the gross claim payments. Euroins’ behaviour is also the result of the actions of the Financial Oversight Authority (ASF), which was active through permanent oversight and control, sometimes resulting in levying penalties,” says ASF.

The ranking of the first three players, based on Gross Written Premiums (GWP), is rounded up by Groupama, with a market share of almost 21%, and Allianz Tiriac with almost 19%, with the two companies performing almost flatly in the second quarter of 2022.

„With the exception of Generali, all the other companies owns between 6% and 8% of the market, worth noting being the position of Axeria Yard, a French company which in June was approaching 6% of the market, although it entered Romania only in December 2021.”

ASF data show that the average premiums stabilised and even entered a downward trend in Q2 2022, with the average premium for individuals reaching 904 lei at the end of June, as against 913 RON at the end of March.

„A gratifying development can also be observed in terms of quotes. Average premiums levelled out and even entered a downward trend in Q2 2022, according to data with ASF. Average premiums for individuals was 904 RON at the end of June, as against 913 RON at the end of March. For legal entities, the average premiums remained approximately at the same level of 1,984 RON, as against 1,943 RON in March.”

According to ASF, compared with the first part of 2021, the increases are still substantial, but the stabilisation and even a slight decrease in premiums for individuals are positive signs that show that the diversification of the market has tangible results.

Indicators also improved in terms of claims history. The combined rate reached 107%, down from over 112% at the end of Q1 2022, over 142% in Q2 2021 and over 161% at the end of 2021.

According to ASF, premium commissions paid by insurers for the distribution of RCA fell to 10.72% in H1 2022, from 14.40% in H1 2021.

At the same time, the loss ratio plummeted to 74.85% in Q2 2022 from 109.15% in Q2 2021, which shows that the insurers substantially reduced their losses.

The Financial Oversight Authority (ASF) is the national authority of Romania for the regulation and oversight of the insurance markets, private pensions, as well as the capital market. ASF contributes to the consolidation of the integrated operating framework of the three players, which have more than 10 million participants combined. AGERPRES

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